BloggingStocks

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The breadth of the danger is staggering

Jim Cramer — 2008-07-15T08:56:00+00:00

Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Regions Financial (RF), AutoNation Inc (AN), Bank of America (BAC), BB and T (BBT), Merrill Lynch (MER), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Comerica Inc (CMA), D.R.Horton (DHI), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Lennar Corp'A' (LEN), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Wachovia Corp (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Cramer on BloggingStocks, MBIA Inc (MBI)

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.

You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.

First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.

We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?

No revelation that Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) or Merrill's (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) in the soup, although I do marvel that at no price do they seem interesting to anyone -- value guys, takeover guys, or acquirers in general. But how about Comerica (NYSE: CMA) (Cramer's Take), Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take), Sovereign (NYSE: SOV) (Cramer's Take), Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ: HBAN) (Cramer's Take), Suntrust (NYSE: STI) (Cramer's Take), Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) (Cramer's Take), First Horizon (NYSE: FHN) (Cramer's Take), Marshall & Ilsley (NYSE: MI) (Cramer's Take), Zions (NASDAQ: ZION) (Cramer's Take), Key (NYSE: KEY) (Cramer's Take), Colonial (NYSE: CNB) (Cramer's Take) and BB&T (NYSE: BBT) (Cramer's Take)? Their charts are indicating there is much more devastation ahead. Every one of them is small enough to fail, and no one would give a darn. If the FDIC follows the trail blazed by IndyMac (NYSE: IMB) (Cramer's Take) it would be great because IndyMac Federal isn't foreclosing anymore. Get rid of the foreclosures, get rid of some of the overhang. But is that the plan, or do they have no place to put the foreclosed loans?

We know that the Gang of Four -- MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take), MGIC (NYSE: MTG) (Cramer's Take), PMI (NYSE: PMI) (Cramer's Take) and Ambac (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) -- has been obliterated, a long-running saga of puffing by management and disastrous numbers. These companies are important, even if everyone seems to think that they have gone down without much repercussion other than the 40th story about how private mortgage insurers are now raising rates. Golly gee, who is paying them anything? They don't have enough money to pay the bank back for heaven's sake!

For example, they are very important to AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), which seems to have found no bottom. None at all. Remember that funny dividend boost at AIG? What was that about?

There are tons of other financial insurers no one's paying attention to that seem to go down pretty constantly. An outfit like XL (NYSE: XL) (Cramer's Take) seems like it is a wasting asset. Or how about Genworth (NYSE: GNW) (Cramer's Take), which is selling well below book value?

Then there is everything auto, not just Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) and GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) (although do you really need anything else to go wrong there?) -- outfits like Visteon (NYSE: VC) (Cramer's Take) or Autonation (NYSE: AN) (Cramer's Take) or Carmax (NYSE: KMX) (Cramer's Take) aren't going to get through this one unscathed.

Or how about the homebuilders? Does anyone think that Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take) will all make it? I don't. How about that nifty Lennar upgrade by UBS? Sold to you, UBS (NYSE: UBS) (Cramer's Take), along with all of the toxic mortgages you STILL OWN!

I am not even going to include the airlines, they are all hopeless in my opinion, except for maybe Southwest (NYSE: LUV) (Cramer's Take). They are charities.

Other areas have problems -- retail has some busted stocks, and so do restaurants. Chico's (NYSE: CHS) (Cramer's Take)? Charming Shoppes (NASDAQ: CHRS) (Cramer's Take)? How about Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) -- where's that headed? Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) (Cramer's Take)? OUCH!

You can see some techs folding, but only a handful. Maybe because only AMD (NYSE: AMD) (Cramer's Take) is on the fiscal ropes do people see "relative strength" in tech, whatever that means.

The problem is that the dire stocks, the ones I have listed, are so numerous and so concentrated with so little hope for rescue that it is hard to imagine anything but more downside for these stocks and therefore more downside for the rest of the market, simply because they are so glaring, are owned by so many mutual funds and have so many roles to play in the real economy.

We know that things have gotten out of control because the IndyMac collapse -- widely predicted -- used a huge amount of the surplus the FDIC has, suddenly making the safety net seem like a flimsy piece of Brawny.

The bottom line here -- there is too much going wrong right now, too much to put us anywhere near sound footing. I suspect that every rally will be met with selling until we see a multitude of collapses like IndyMac.

I am not going to search for positives in any of these groups yet, and if they rally off the decision by the Treasury to make more explicit the Fannie and Freddie guarantees, I would scale out of them once again on any short squeeze like the one we had at yesterday's opening.

Someone asked me yesterday, "When do we bottom?" I said it wouldn't be until all the banks that have to fail do so and GM files bankruptcy along with Ford. I said it matter-of-factly, because I meant it and because it is obvious.

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RELATED LINKS:
IndyMac Insurance Tab Could Hit $8B
Fannie, Freddie Plan Staves Off Housing Disaster
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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Steve & Barry's prepares to file for bankruptcy

Zac Bissonnette — 2008-07-09T08:26:00+00:00

Filed under: Bad news, Sears Holdings (SHLD)

In a blow to bargain shoppers that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago, uber-fast growing discount apparel retailer Steve & Barry's is preparing to file for bankruptcy, according to The New York Times. The company has grown rapidly with its 50,000-100,000 square foot stores offering extremely cheap clothing aimed at college students: NBA-star endorsed basketball shoes for $8.98 (Starbury's, shown right), clothing lines endorsed by Venus Williams and Amanda Bynes, and a Sarah Jessica Parker line as well.

The company is reportedly discussing a possible deal with Sears Holdings (NYSE: SHLD), but that company isn't in such great shape either. Steve & Barry's debt load appears to be making a sale impossible without the benefit of a bankruptcy filing.

It's been a rapid fall from grace -- not so long ago, the company was the darling of mall operators looking to fill vacant big box locations. They lured Steve & Barry's with large upfront payments that kept the cash flowing for awhile. But once those were exhausted, the stores weren't profitable enough on their own.

I hold out hope for this company; it's a fantastic idea and, in some form, I think it will live on. It's my hope that at least some of the stores can be salvaged, and if not, there's always the internet. Because of its focus on retail growth, Steve and Barry's currently has no e-commerce site -- none. If someone is able to acquire this one off the bankruptcy scrapheap, I would expect that to change.

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Before the bell: Futures lower as oil rises, despite Alcoa earnings

Melly Alazraki — 2008-07-09T07:32:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, Market matters, Alcoa Inc (AA), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Economic data, Oil, Federal Reserve

U.S. stock futures were lower early Wednesday morning as oil prices rebounded following Iran testing a long-range missile. Oil has dropped over $9 the past two days, allowing the market Tuesday to stage a rally on financials. Today, ahead of the crude inventory report, it seem oil will renew its center stage focus, damping mood despite somewhat encouraging results from aluminum giant Alcoa Tuesday after the close.

On Tuesday, after having a shaky start, U.S. stocks closed with significant gains after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed will try to further help brokerages with emergency funds to tap. This helped financials rally from recent doldrums. Of course, having oil prices easing by the biggest two-day drop in almost four months helped push stocks higher as well. The Dow industrials ended 152 points higher, or 1.36%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 51 points, or 2.28%, and the S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.71%.

But oil prices this morning are again moving higher after Iran test-fired nine missiles, renewing fears of a conflict that could cut global oil supplies. Also today, traders are waiting for the weekly report on fuel inventories from the U.S. Department of Energy due at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

In corporate news, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) shares were nearly 3.5% higher in after-hours trading following the report of its second-quarter results Tuesday after the close, which kicked off the second-quarter earnings period. While the aluminum giant posted a drop in quarterly profit on higher costs, it beat Wall Street estimates. Higher prices couldn't offset enough the higher costs, which will likely continue.

Meanwhile, retail continues to hurt with chain Steve & Barry's close to filing for bankruptcy. The Wall Street Journal says that Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) is interested in acquiring some of the clothing chain's labels.

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Wal-Mart might help your portfolio during the recession

Steven Mallas — 2008-07-08T15:04:00+00:00

Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Recession

An article over at MSNBC.com talks about Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and its potential to thrive during the economic downturn. It got me thinking that maybe I should dump some of my underperforming financial stocks and invest in the controversial retailer.

Indeed, the article's thesis is almost undeniable. Whether you like Wal-Mart or not, it has an ironclad reputation for having low prices. Does it actually have the lowest prices around all the time? That I couldn't tell you. But a lot of items are pretty reasonably priced in any given store, and more importantly, people at least perceive that they are getting great deals when they shop there. In fact, in the latest Wal-Mart Weekly, Brian White analyzes the impact of Wal-Mart's initiative to purchase locally-grown produce to reduce the cost of doing business. This is a competitive move designed to help the company and its shoppers weather the financial storms pounding the markets and wreaking havoc on consumer-confidence levels. Wal-Mart is all about keeping things cheap, and this is going to resonate with the consumer so long as the bear market remains and the negative-wealth effect casts a pall over the nation.

Okay, that's the thesis in a nutshell. But what about the stock? How has it been performing? If you take a look at the AOL Finance snapshot for Wal-Mart, you'll see that the stock has performed rather well for most timeframes. It's dipped 3% in the last month, but it's only a few bucks away from its 52-week high (unlike my financial stocks, which seem to be making new 52-week-lows a daily habit!). That shows strength in my opinion. Compare Wal-Mart to competitors Target (NYSE: TGT) and Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and you'll see that the stock is doing reasonably well.

Wal-Mart's stock should be put on the proverbial watch list. The bad economy and the bear market may be here for a while, so if Wal-Mart's stock breaks the 52-week high, Wall Street may be telling you something.

However, as I've been saying in some of my last posts, think carefully before buying anything now, especially in terms of your personal time horizon, since equities are in chaos mode.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Profit from fantastic four, southwest secrets to success & behind the booze brands - Today in Money 7/8

Allan Halprin — 2008-07-08T08:40:00+00:00

Filed under: Home Depot (HD), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), India, China, Brazil, Russia, Penney (J.C.) (JCP), Money and Finance Today, Sears Holdings (SHLD), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Lowe's Cos (LOW), Office Depot (ODP), Southwest Airlines (LUV), IndyMac Bancorp (IMB)

In the News:

· Fed Eyes Extending Emergency Loans for Wall Street

· Siemens Cutting 16,750 Jobs Worldwide

· Microsoft Is Icahn's Ally in Pursuit of Yahoo

· Fannie & Freddie Plunge on Capital Concerns

· IndyMac Halts New Loans, to Cut 3,800 Jobs

· Office Depot Sees 10% Drop in Sales

· Texas Oilman T. Boone Pickens Wants to Replace Oil With Wind

· AirTran Cutting 480 Pilot & Flight Attendant Jobs

· J.C. Penney Launches Brand for Young Adults

· Warren Buffett Gives Away $2 Billion in Stock to 3 Charities

Profit From the Fantastic Four
Take a look at these 26 stocks, funds and exchange-traded funds that key in on the fast-growing BRIC nations -- Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Profit From the Fantastic Four - Kiplinger.com

Southwest's Seven Secrets for Success
By some estimates, the country's major carriers have consumed perhaps $100 billion in capital during the past decade, but Southwest Airlines continues to be profitable. It's been in the black for 33 consecutive years and, last week, for the 127th consecutive quarter. While its competitors are shrinking, Southwest will add a handful of flights this fall. What does Southwest know that no one else in airlines does? It keeps things simple and consistent, which drives costs down, maximizes productive assets, and helps manage customer expectations.
Why Southwest Succeeds - Portfolio.com

Cut Your Spending By $500 a Month
The Consumer Reports Money Lab shakes loose a bushel of savings hiding in everyday spending. See how to save $200 a month on food, $25 on bank fees, $35 on phone savings, $65 on credit cards, $110 on insurance, $125 on retirement tax savings.
ConsumerReports.org - Saving money, increase your 401(k) contribution

Beat the College Loan Crunch
Lenders are leaving in droves, which could cut off funds for the coming academic year. Here's how to get the money your child needs.
Your family's money - Beat the college loan crunch - CNNmoney

Best Appliance Stores
Lowe's edges out Home Depot, Sears gets mixed results and low marks for Maytag. Take a look at how Consumer Reports rates the best for price and service from the most recognizable names in appliances.
ConsumerReports.org - Appliance stores: Ratings, How to choose

As Food Costs Soar, It's Back to Basic for Meal Planners
Rebecca Woods and her family in Lathrop, Mo., have turned to the land, planting hundreds of vegetables and relying on their own chickens for eggs. Retirees Sally and Robert Jones of Alpine, Texas, have reverted back to some of the menus that got them through graduate school many years ago, living on beans, stews and soups. They are just a couple of examples of how Americans are changing their meal planning as food prices continue to climb.
As food costs soar, it's back to basics for meal planners - USATODAY.com

Behind the Booze Brands
Who were Captain Morgan and Johnnie Walker? Believe it or not, both men really existed--the former a vicious pirate, the latter a Scottish grocer. Products such as Jack Daniel's leverage their histories to sell a drinking experience based on historical reverence--unchanged by time. See who is really behind the brand names for Captain Morgan, Grey Goose, Hennessy, J&B, Jack Daniels, Jagermeister, Jose Cuervo and more.
Behind The Labels - Forbes.com

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The next Sony is Vizio

Georges Yared — 2008-06-29T16:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, Dell (DELL), Wal-Mart (WMT), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Circuit City Stores (CC), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Costco Wholesale (COST)

This post is part of my series featuring established companies and the smaller, more aggressive or innovative rivals that may eventually succeed them.

Who would have thought that privately held, 2002 upstart Vizio could upset the LCD TV market and knock giant Sony (NYSE: SNE) off of its perch?

The world of televisions is transforming itself to flat-panel, high-definition and big screens. Vizio was founded in 2002 and is taking major market share from Sony and former second fiddle Samsung. Vizio's promise to its customers is simple -- small is big. The company has only 85 employees, mostly in sales and marketing, and outsources the manufacturing to other suppliers. The key to the Vizio story is getting the product through as many retail doors as possible.

The company has signed up a couple of big wigs in the retail sales channel: Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST), to go along with Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and Circuit City (NYSE: CC). Vizio is also available from Dell Computers e-commerce web site (NASDAQ: DELL). Vizio understands it's all about distribution, distribution, distribution.

Vizio has taken the marketing position that television decisions typically are the domain of the male of a household and, as such, has partnered up with the NFL. Football and big screen TVs are synonymous. Vizio has signed All-Pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson of the San Diego Chargers to be its spokesperson. Tomlinson is regarded as both a fine gentleman and perhaps the greatest running back since Barry Sanders. His wholesome image is magical to Vizio's marketing program.

Vizio offers the lowest prices for the new LCD TVs. The company operates with low overhead and very effective, but low-cost marketing plans. Recent market share numbers show Vizio at 14.5%, easily topping Sony. Vizio's actual numbers are hard to find but the 2nd quarter of 2007 saw the company sell 606,000 units, up 76% from the previous year, while Sony fell from 412,000 units to 253,000 units in the same period.

Vizio has managed to capture the lion's share of new unit sales, but has not disclosed its profitability numbers. The margins in the industry are thin to begin with, which explains Vizio's low expense structure.

Still, it's hard to imagine this young company knocking Sony around the block. Now Sony knows what it's like to tackle LaDanian Tomlinson!

Georges Yared is the editor of GameOnInvesting, a free service devoted to helping investors spot game-changing stocks before they breakout.

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Stock picks under $10, 10 worst managed companies & historic site foreclosures

Allan Halprin — 2008-06-18T09:29:00+00:00

Filed under: Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), Pfizer (PFE), Starbucks (SBUX), Ford Motor (F), Motorola (MOT), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Money and Finance Today, Boston Scientific (BSX), Circuit City Stores (CC), CIT Group (CIT), Kellogg Co (K), Sears Holdings (SHLD), FedEx Corp (FDX), Morgan Stanley (MS), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Sun Microsystems (JAVA), Liz Claiborne (LIZ)

In the News:

· Morgan Stanley 2Q Profit Plunges 57%

· FedEx Profit Wrecked By High Fuel Costs, Company Warns

· Generic Versions of Lipitor Expected in 2011

· Apple's iPhone Sales May Double in 2009

· Northwest Airlines to Cut Flights, Offer Early Buyouts

· Kellogg Shrinks Size of Fruit Loops, Apple Jacks and Other Cereals

· Unhappy 1-Year Anniversary for Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang

· LinkedIn Valued at $1 Billion; Big Plans Afoot

· Tomatoes Back at Fast Food Restaurants

· Red Cross and Johnson & Johnson Dispute Over Red Cross Symbol Settled

Stock Picks for Under $10
There are a lot of once-highflying stocks that have fallen below $10 and look like bargains ripe for the picking. See if CIT Group, Ford, Motorola, Tenet Healthcare, Dynegy and Interpublic.
Stock Picks for Under $10 - CNBC

10 Worst Managed Companies in America
With the trading year almost half over and results from the first quarter out, 24/7 Wall St. presents its latest installment of its Ten Worst Managed Companies In America list. They include Sun Microsystems, Sears, Boston Scientific, Starbucks, Sprint, Circuit City, Motorola, AMD, AIG and Pfizer.
24/7 Wall St.: The 24/7 Wall St. Ten Worst Managed Companies In America

Historic Sites in Danger of Foreclosure
Mark Twain, Edith Wharton and other boldfaced names among the dead have something in common with living Americans in these hard financial times.
Foreclosure Looms Over Historic Sites - AOL Money & Finance

The Credit Trap
How rising home values and easy credit put your finances at risk.
How rising home values, easy credit put your finances at risk - USATODAY.com

Wal-Mart: The New Green Giant
From solar panels to less packaging, the retailer continues to unveil Earth-friendly initiatives.
In Pictures: Green Giant - BusinessWeek

Coffee Drinkers Live Longer?
For women, especially, the brew could boost heart health, study finds.
Coffee Drinkers Might Live Longer

Prepare Now, Save Come Winter
Taking these steps to lower your heating bills now will pay off when winter hits.
Prepare Now for a Pricey Winter Heating Season - SmartMoney.com

Tap Water Making a Comeback
With a day's worth of bottled water -- the recommended 64 ounces -- costing hundreds to thousands of dollars a year depending on the brand, more people are opting to drink water that comes straight from the sink.
Feeling thrifty, the thirsty reach for tap, not bottle - USATODAY.com

Can Mizrahi Revive Liz Claiborne?
January, Liz Claiborne hired Mizrahi away from Target to become the new creative director for women's apparel, accessories, and licensing. Claiborne C.E.O. Bill McComb hopes Mizrahi's touch will awaken Liz from the extended slumber of dowdy, forgettable styles and make the brand back into a wardrobe essential for fashion-conscious working women. Can he do it?
Liz Claiborne's Mizrahi Moment - Portfolio.com

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Earnings highlights: Dell, Sears, Costco, Heinz, Tiffany, Borders, DSW and others

Trey Thoelcke — 2008-05-31T11:40:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Google (GOOG), Dell (DELL), Starbucks (SBUX), Tiffany and Co (TIF), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Costco Wholesale (COST), Novell Inc (NOVL), Marvell Technology Group (MRVL), salesforce.com inc (CRM)

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Q1 earnings rose 20%, driven by cash-strapped bargain hunters.
Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) narrowed its loss in the first quarter though same-store sales fell.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) Q3 profits climbed 32%, beating analysts' estimates.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) posted solid Q1 results that beat analysts' expectations (see the transcript).
DSW Inc. (NYSE: DSW) Q1 earnings declined, hurt by weak same-store sales.
H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) better-than-expected Q4 results sent the stock to a 52-week high.
Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: IART) beat Q4 estimates and offered Q1 guidance.
J. Crew Group Inc. (NYSE: JCG) lowered its full-year forecast, leading to analyst downgrades.
Joy Global Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG) Q2 results beat expectations, and it raised its full-year guidance.
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) posted record Q4 revenues but a bigger-than-expected loss.
Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) Q1 profits beat estimates and led to analyst upgrades.
Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) beat Q4 estimates and offered full-year guidance.
Novell Inc. (NASDAQ: NOVL) swung to a profit that was in line with analysts estimates.
Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) Q1 revenues surged on new customers and demand in Asia.

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) swung to a Q1 loss as same-store sales declined.
Semtech Corp. (NASDAQ: SMTC) beat Q1 expectations with record revenues and raises its outlook.
Shoe Carnival Inc. (NASDAQ: SCVL) Q1 profit fell due to softer-than-expected seasonal sales.
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) easily beat Q1 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) Q1 earnings quadrupled, but it expects a loss in the current quarter.

Also earnings of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), and 400 other companies were affected by write downs of auction-rate securities.

Upcoming results to watch for include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV), Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN), Bob Evans Farms (NASDAQ: BOBE), Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Del Monte (NYSE: DLM), National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM), Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), and Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

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Sears Holdings and its huge miss = stay away!

Steven Mallas — 2008-05-30T11:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT), Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) really blew its earnings numbers. According to Briefing.com, Sears' Q1 adjusted earnings missed by 68 cents. Nope, no beating by the proverbial penny here, folks. Sears was expected to report an adjusted profit closer to 15 cents per share; instead, not the 53 cent loss booked by the retailer. Man, that's bad. Wall Street also expected a better top-line performance. But Sears couldn't come through on that count, either. Net sales for the quarter declined almost 6% to a little more than $11 billion.

But wait, there's more bad news. Same-store sales at Sears took a turn for the worse, diving almost 10%! Comps at Kmart decreased 7%! The gross margin went down! Want more, or is that enough? The Sears story is not a good one. What's going on here? Well, the release does say something about a bad economy, but that isn't a worthwhile excuse. Sears simply needs to apply itself and get traffic into its stores. Use some thinking-outside-of-the-box marketing campaigns to reignite the brand's fire.

Management seems confident in the future of Sears and Kmart, since it highlighted plans to repurchase shares. That's all well and good, and certainly you might as well buy low, but I'm not going to join management in its investment. The stock is at the low end of a wild 52-week range. The low, according to AOL Finance, is $84.72. The high is $183.25. Is Sears a value at its current price of $86.14 (this is as of Thursday's close)? Who knows? But, fellow investors, I'm not stepping in.

Sears and its brand is hurting. There are better ideas out there, such as Target (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). The release did indicate that Sears would have positive free cash flow for 2008, which is a positive (I do love free cash generation), but it's not enough to sway me; call me bearish on the leadership skills of Eddie Lampert.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

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Closing Bell: stocks run on GDP, retail, and lower oil

Jon Ogg — 2008-05-29T16:57:00+00:00

Filed under: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Sears Holdings (SHLD), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Trump Entertainment Resorts (TRMP)

Today's stock market rally may be more of a relief run than anything, but the end of day strength of late has been hard to ignore. Today we saw a huge drop of almost 9 million barrels of oil that caught traders off guard, but interestingly enough the oil markets dropped considerably. Combine that with a slightly higher revision to Q1 US GDP to +0.9% and all of a sudden the recession isn't looking so serious. These are the major US index closing levels:

DJIA 12,642.47 (+48.20)
S&P500 1,398.03 (+7.19)
NASDAQ 2,508.32 (+21.62)
52-WEEK LOWS
Top 10 Analyst Calls (ALU, CHS, LONG, IFX, JNPR, MAR, MFA, NSC, SNDA, VVUS)

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) beat earnings and raised certain parts of guidance, and shares were up over 9% at $31.21 in the final minutes of trading.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) shares were down 1% to $89.51 in the final minutes today as oil prices fell so much today.

Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) saw an 8% rise by the late-day move to $310.15, an all-time high, after the company told shareholders that it expects to grow faster even as the economy slows.

Sears Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SHLD) posted a wide loss rather than its expected gains. The only reason this wasn't a worse reaction is because shareholders had already been given a loose warning to expect dismal results; and Eddie Lampert is likely to see pressure to improve very soon. Shares were down almost 3% at $86.75 in very late-day trading.

Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc. (NASDAQ: TRMP) rose a sharp 23% to $3.57 by the final minutes today after the company announced it was selling the trump Marina property for $316 million to become part of a Jimmy Buffett themed resort owned by Coastal Marina, LLC.

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Small stocks with big potential, Best cities to live, work and play & most polluted cities - Today in Money 5/29

Allan Halprin — 2008-05-29T09:31:00+00:00

Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Wal-Mart (WMT), Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Money and Finance Today, Sears Holdings (SHLD), Costco Wholesale (COST), United Parcel'B' (UPS), Under Armour'A' (UA), Bear Stearns Cos (BSC)

In the News:

· Costco Profits Rise 32%, Topping Wall Street Expectations

· Stuggling Retailer Sears Loses $56 Million in 1Q; Missing Estimates

· More Restructuring Coming to General Motors

· Ford Motor to Cut More Jobs

· Heinz Raises Earnings Growth Forecast

· Rival DHL to Ship Some Packages Via UPS

· Microsoft Unit Under Criminal Investigation in Norway

· 85-Year Old Bear Stearns Set to Disappear Today

· Wal-Mart Puts the Squeeze on Food Costs

· Mortgage Rates Rise and Lenders Get Strict

Small Stocks, Big Potential
Little companies get less attention from investors, but they can often provide handsome returns. Here are 21 top picks in the group from investing pros.
Small Wonders - BusinessWeek

Hot Growth, Against All Odds
Here is BusinessWeek's list of fastest-growing small companies. Can they sustain their stratospheric growth? Topping the list is Hansen Natural, LuluLemon Athletica and Graham. Other hot growth companies include J.Crew, Morningstar, Nutrisystem, Quicksilver, Gymboree, Blue Nile, Strayer Education and Under Armour.
Hot Growth, Against the Odds - BusinessWeek List: Hot Growth Companies

2008 Best Cities to Live, Work & Play
In our search for the ten best cities in which to live and work, we sought places with strong economies and abundant jobs, plus reasonable living costs and plenty of fun things to do. There are some very surprising cities that rose to the top, most surprisingly was the comeback kid - Houston, TX. who ranked No. 1. Other top places include Raleigh, NC, Omaha, NE, Boise, ID and Colorado Springs, CO.
Kiplinger's Best Cities - Best Places to Live, Smartest Cities for Your Future

Best & Worst Metro Areas for Pollution
Per capita carbon emissions were highest in Lexington, Ky., 3.4 metric tons per person, and lowest in Honolulu, 1.3 metric tons per person, the report found. Most surprising was Los Angeles which rnankes as second best area.
Report ranks metro areas on pollution - USATODAY.com

Rent a Car, Get Cheap Gas
It goes against all conventional car rental wisdom: agreeing to fill the tank up at the rental agency may actually make more financial sense than going to a gas station. Car-rental agencies are offering discounted fill-ups, as well as other savings.
Rental Companies Offer Cheap Gas, Other Discounts - SmartMoney.com

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Pre-market movers (LCC) (UAUA) (SHLD)

Douglas McIntyre — 2008-05-29T07:59:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Sears Holdings (SHLD), US Airways Group (LCC), UAL Corp (UAUA)

US Airways (NYSE:LCC) is up 5% on rumors of merger talks with United (NASDAQ:UAUA).

Dress Barn (NASDAQ:DBRN) is up about 7% on good earnings.

Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR) is off 6% on a downgrade by Merrill.

Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD) is down 5% after reporting a poor quarter.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Before the bell: Futures mixed ahead of GDP; after COST, SHLD reporting

Melly Alazraki — 2008-05-29T07:41:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, General Motors (GM), Employees, Market matters, Sears Holdings (SHLD), Costco Wholesale (COST), Economic data, Oil, Federal Reserve

Stock futures were somewhat lower early Thursday morning, but then started to reverse course, as investors awaited a revision first quarter GDP as well as better indication on oil supplies. Several major retailers and consumer companies are also reporting. For now, futures are mixed, but it seems momentum might push stocks higher.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks rose after lower drop than estimated in durable goods orders. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds passed 4% for the first time since January. There were indications that the Federal Reserve might reconsider its rate cut policy. The Dow industrials rose 45 points, or 0.36%, the Nasdaq Composite added 5 points, or 0.22%, and the S&P 500 rose 5 points, or 0.40%.

The economic calendar is busier today with a release at 8:30 a.m. EDT of the revised first quarter reading on gross domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. economic activity. Economists expect GDP to be revised upward to 0.9% from 0.6%.
Also at 8:30, weekly initial jobless claims will be reported for an update on the labor market.
At 10:30 a.m., weekly crude inventories numbers will be released and could affect oil trade. So far, oil has dropped somewhat ahead of the report that is expected to show U.S. inventories of crude and petroleum products grew last week.

On the corporate side, several retailers have reported, most notably, Sears and Costco.

Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) reported an unexpected loss for is first quarter as it increased promotions and markdowns to clear slow-moving merchandise. Sears lost $56 million, or 43 cents per share, while Wall Street expected a gain of 15 cents per share. It warned it expects its sales and margins to be pressured for the rest of the year due to tough economic conditions. SHLD shares are down 4% in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, wholesale club retailer Costco (NASDAQ: COST) reported that fiscal third-quarter profit climbed 32% to to $295.1 million, or 67 cents per share, beating Wall Street expectations of 65 cents per share. Seems that cash-squeezed customers were looking for bargains in its warehouse clubs. COST shares, however are also down in premarket trading and were 1.7% lower at 7:18 a.m.

And not speaking of earnings, but something else we seem to hear every day as well, General Motors (NYSE: GM) is working on additional restructuring measures, according to Associated Press. These will no doubt include further adjustment to product mix and cost cut measures, which will no doubt include further reduction to its work force.

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Option Update: Sears Holding volatility up into EPS

Paul Foster — 2008-05-28T15:13:00+00:00

Filed under: Sears Holdings (SHLD), Options

Sears Holding (NASDAQ: SHLD) is recently trading up 42 cents to $87.51 as shares near 45-month low.

SHLD is scheduled to release Q1 results on May 29.

SHLD call option volume of 13,028 contracts compares to put volume of 6,312 contracts. SHLD June call option implied volatility is at 51, puts are at 57. SHLD average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. SHLD puts are priced higher than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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The week in preview: Are Father's Day gifts coming from DELL, RL, or MW?

Andrew Horowitz — 2008-05-25T13:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Dell (DELL), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)

Father's Day is around the corner. Why not spend some time looking at the coming earnings and how Dad's Day may have an impact. It is funny to see how many of the companies reporting earnings this week actually have links to Father's Day.

While this column has been obviously bearish of late, there are a few potential winners that may appear, just in time for the big day. Time to stock up on gifts for dear-ole-dad, or get farther away from stocks? You tell me... (by the way, comments and ideas are always appreciated)

Monday, May 26

Markets will be flat. I am certain that stocks on the U.S. Market will close at the exact price they closed last Friday. But what do I know!

Tuesday, May 27

Gander Mountain Company (NASDAQ: GMTN) shares have been bouncing all over the place and have formed an interesting chart pattern of two peaks and a crater in March. Now shares are continuing a downward slope and look to be ready to fall off a cliff. This sporting retailer has recent sales approaching $1 billion yet somehow managed to lose $31 million during the last 12 months. Blame it on the discretionary buying patterns of consumers? Sure... why not, it couldn't be management, could it? Whatever the reason, consumers are having enough of a hard time already, so the expected loss of 60 cents per share is no stretch. I hope they sell hard hats there for shareholders.... Watch out below!

If your dad is into gaming and he speaks Chinese, he more than likely enjoys role-playing games on the Shanda Interactive Entertainment (NASDAQ: SNDA) network. There is no denying the fact that China stocks have been on fire. Technically, shares of Shanda are displaying a bullish double bottom and are trending higher as it makes higher lows. Earnings have been very strong with this group as has been relative strength. If the stock can break through resistance of $38, it could show a significant upside with an earnings beat. Their fundamentals are strong so don't be surprised if investors bid up into the earnings release. Look for 51 cents per share on $106 million of revenue.

Wednesday, May 28

The Men's Warehouse, Inc. (NYSE: MW) is where an educated investor is their best short-seller. It's no surprise that this specialty retailer has seen a dramatic pullback during this recessionary environment. Since October 2007 the shares have lost 50% of their value and earnings are now expected to be 22 cents per share, or 1/3 of what they were just one year ago. If you have any reason to get back at your dad for not letting you borrow the car or embarrassing you as a kid, here's your chance by buying him 1,000 shares of Men's Warehouse before earnings. That should teach him.

What is the perfect gift for dad? A tie, cologne, or a gorgeous shirt? Either one will lead you to something from Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL). The name is synonymous with class and distinction, but it is not exempt from the powerful impact of an economic slowdown. This stock is riding its 50-day moving average. Watch the quarterly earnings, estimated to be 65 cents per share. If the stock breaks below its support of $57.50, as you may see another 10% drop to the next support level.

In all fairness, not all dads dress in the traditional suit and tie. That is good news for The Dress Barn, Inc. (NASDAQ: DBRN). Recently, shares skirted near disaster when they dipped under $10 in March. Earnings expectations have been falling for the coming year yet shares have been moving slowly higher on increasing volume. This specialty store that offers women's regular and plus sized apparel has seen its price ride its 200-day moving average as institutions have been increasing their holdings. What do the big boys know? This could be a signal to buy this beaten down stock. Revenue is estimated to be $350 million for the quarter and per share earning 26 cents.

Thursday, May 29

Real men don't eat quiche; but they do have loud cars! Well, not if Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNRO) has anything to do with it. First Call is expecting a much quieter quarter with earnings coming in at 14 cents per share as compared to 19 cents during the same period last year. Revenues are estimated to come in at $108.74 million for the period. Shares should continue to stall as the entire automotive sector is stuck in neutral, except for the fact that the chart is showing bullish pattern. Don't be surprised if this is a winner as expectations are low.

Timing is everything they say. Movado Group, Inc. (NYSE: MOV) will probably agree with that. Watch earnings as they are expected to tick lower by 50% as compared to last year. First Call is showing estimates at 4 cents per share on $97.30 million of revenue. Earnings growth is slowing and has been estimated to continue to be negative through 2010... not encouraging.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) has been up against hard times. In April the company announced a $1 billion share buyback plan. So, either management believes that it is the best use of their excess cash or they are doing everything possible to keep the share price up. Either way, this could be a short-term bullish sign. The problem is that they are just not sexy anymore. Even with the acquisition of AlienWare in 2006 and Michael Dell coming back to the helm as of January 2007, shares have been moving lower. The chart is showing a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern during 2008. Is Dell ready for a comeback? Just ask Dad what type of computer he wants this year for Father's Day. Want to bet it isn't a Dell? Look for earnings of 33 cents per share on $1.56 billion of revenue.

I know my dad loves Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ: SHLD) ...how about yours? Those tools and overalls, those washers and dryers...Oh, the riding mowers. I love that place! Yet it seems that the love affair with Sears waning. Last September, I wrote about the problems that Sears was about to endure. The idea had been that during the past several years, shares had been climbing because of the idea that the underlying real estate had unrealized value. That was the same reason that it was about to get clobbered. (see Sears in Focus) The stock has fallen from $125, at the time that analysis was written to about $85 today. The effect of falling land values combined with the problems of being a retailer in a slowing economy has been tough on Sears. Analysts are looking for .15 per share this quarter and it may be time to start nipping at this after earnings are released. If they make or exceed the number, shares should rebound to $100. If you want to play it conservatively, perhaps consider buying call options - just out of-the-money.

Friday, May 30

Sell in May and go to the movies. Grab some popcorn and tickets for you and Dad and head over to the next big movie from Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF). Wait, and I mean wait. It seems that the next movie to be released by LGF is slated for September 2008. What happened to the summer? Earnings are expected to come in at 37 cents per share of the period, up from 23 cents for the same period last year. The good news is the fundamentals with this company as they have little, if no debt and plenty of cash. That could be a great benefit to LGF shareholders as other companies in the sector could have a hard time raising cash for productions.

Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients do not hold positions in stocks mentioned as of the publish date.

Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor: Essential Strategies for Success. Now available on Audiobook!

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Earnings expectations: Dell, Sears, Borders, Costco, Tiffany, Omnivision and others

Trey Thoelcke — 2008-05-24T16:40:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Dell (DELL), Tiffany and Co (TIF), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Costco Wholesale (COST), Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)

While the earnings season is beginning to wind down for the current quarter, there are still plenty of results to come. Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report results in the final week of May 2008.

These companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:

Omnivison Technologies (NASDAQ: OVTI) up 81.3% to 32 cents per share, on $178.20 million in revenue
Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) up 48.6% to 37 cents per share, on $410.93 million in revenue
Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) up 27.7% to 36 cents per share, on $1.14 billion in revenue
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) up 13.8% to 65 cents per share, on $16.32 billion in revenue
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) up 10.0% to 40 cents per share, on $648.87 million in revenue
HJ Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) up 9.8% to 61 cents per share, on $2.67 billion in revenue
Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) up 9.5% to 42 cents per share, on $1.05 billion in revenue

These companies are expected to report earnings declines:

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) down 86.4% to 15 cents per share, on $11.41 billion in revenue
Men's Wearhouse Inc. (NYSE: MW) down 70.6% to 22 cents per share, on $476.98 million in revenue
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) down 4.4% to 65 cents per share, on $1.15 billion in revenue
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) down 2.9% to 33 cents per share, on $15.66 billion in revenue

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is expected to swing to a loss of a penny per share, compared to a penny profit a year ago, and report $55.62 million in revenue. And analysts expect Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) to narrow its loss 7.8% to 47 cents per share, on $801.11 million in revenue.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

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Macy's Q1 beats analysts, but don't expect me to buy the stock

Steven Mallas — 2008-05-15T09:33:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT), Penney (J.C.) (JCP), Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Retailer Macy's (NYSE: M) first fiscal quarter wasn't that bad, at least in terms of the analyst game. The company, which competes with mall colleagues such as J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), reported net income of 2 cents per diluted share from continuing operations. The denizens of Wall Street thought the company would lose 2 cents, so management came ahead in this regard by four pennies. Bravo!

However, does this news excite me? Not necessarily. Macy's needs a little help in its sales department. First, the overall top line declined almost 3%, coming in at $5.7 billion. Second, and perhaps even more telling, same-store sales were weak during the quarter, decreasing by 2.6%. And then there's the issue of cash flow. Operational cash flow from continuing operations was excellent compared with last year's quarter since $21 million was generated this time around as opposed to $370 million being used last time around. Nevertheless, when you take into account capital spending, no free cash flow was left over in the first quarter. And cash has been decreasing on the balance sheet. Oh, and gross margin went down, too.

I wasn't too taken by Macy's current earnings report, and I'm not putting the company on my list of investment ideas right now, even though the stock closed up yesterday on the news (heck, the company didn't repurchase any shares last quarter and stated that it didn't see any more share repurchases coming for the rest of the year, so apparently the stock isn't on management's ideas list, either). I think there might be better retail investments out there, such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or Target (NYSE: TGT). Yes, the retailer may have strong associations with Donald Trump and Martha Stewart, but I will not be blinded by such celebrity value.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

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