shld

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you can't ignore the positive outlook of Phillips-Van Heusen's CEO.

Can you be as bearish about retail if the company that has almost half the dress shirt business in the country, the one that has more than half the neckwear in this country, the one that has more than 600 stores and is in Kohl's (KSS) (Cramer's Take), Wal-Mart (WMT) (Cramer's Take), Sears (SHLD) (Cramer's Take) and just about everyone else, tells you that things are booming?

Today's jobs data was not bad, relatively any way, but the housing delinquencies and foreclosure rates was just awful and not representative of anything good. The overseas selling had the markets soft this morning and despite a recovery off lows the 'positive green line' was never really in the cards at the end of the trading day. The retailers are also running soft because of excessive discounting and promotions before the holiday season even starts.

Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,341.44 -84.87 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,094.90 -14.90 (-1.34%)
Nasdaq 2,156.82 -36.32 (-1.66%)

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Sears Holdings (SHLD) was selling off close to 5% at the time of this writing in reaction to the company's Q3 report. On an adjusted basis, the retailer lost 81 cents per share. That was better than the 90 cents lost in the comparable period, and it did beat the forecast as highlighted in our earnings preview.

I'm sort of shocked that the market didn't bid Sears higher. Going into the earnings news, the stock was hanging out near a 52-week high. Let's see, Wall Street sends the stock to the high point of the range, the release comes out, the loss isn't as bad as analysts expected it to be, and everyone sells. The market sure is strange sometimes, isn't it?

U.S. stock futures declined Thursday morning, pointing to a lower start on Wall Street as investors started weighing the possibility that stocks have run up too far and too fast ahead of the economy -- the economic recovery may not be as robust. The retail sector is in focus with several retailers reporting earnings. The tech sector could also experience pressure.

On Wednesday, stocks ended lower with technology shares leading the decline, and the Nasdaq composite down nearly half a percent. Results from Salesforce.com (CRM) and Autodesk (ADSK) weighed on the sector as Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Microsoft (MSFT) were among the leading decliners in the Dow.

On the heels of last week's better-than-expected earnings results from retailers Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), Kohl's Corp. (KSS), Macy's Inc. (M), Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) -- as well as disappointing numbers from Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) and JCPenney Co. Inc. (JCP) -- the coming week will bring results from more shopping- and strip-mall favorites.

TJX Companies Inc. (TJX), which operates T.J. Maxx and Marshalls stores in the U.S., settled a class action, announced share buybacks and raised its guidance in the third quarter. For the three months that ended in October, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect TJX to report earnings of $0.80 per share, up from $0.57 in the same period of last year. Revenue is expected to total $5.3 billion, or 10.2% higher than a year ago. So far, the full-year forecast is for a profit of $2.59 per share (+22.3%) on $20.0 billion (+5.5%) in sales.

Wal-Mart (WMT), which competes with chains such as Sears Holdings(SHLD), Costco (COST), and Target (TGT), reported results for the third quarter this morning. According to our Before the Bell piece, the famous -- and oftentimes controversial -- retailer beat expectations by a few pennies, earnings 84 cents per share from continuing operations. This was 9% better than the per-share profit earned in the comparable period.

Net sales went up only 1%. They were inhibited by the currency environment. But total sales aren't as relevant as same-store sales when it comes to this sector. If I were a shareholder of Wal-Mart, I would be very disappointed by the comps number, since it is the older locations which indicate how well a retailer is truly doing.

Sears Holding (NASDAQ: SHLD) closed at $68.09. SHLD is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on November 19. SHLD November call option implied volatility is at 49, puts are at 50; December calls are at 52, puts are at 62; verses its 26-week average of 50, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. SHLD puts are more expensive than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

Financial Select Sector - XLF overall volatility at 41; 26-week average is 43.

ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 154 on 11/3/09. ISEE 10-day moving average is 126.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Back in June, there was a report on WalletPop that Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and Kmart spied on customers who participated in an online marketing study. The company paid participants in the study $10 if they would download and retain software for "My SHC Community."

The participants were told that the software would help them "participate in exciting, engaging, and on-going interactions" on their own terms. Sears noted that the software would only monitor the participants' online browsing. Not so, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which reported that the software captured secured sessions from participants -- including online banking. The FTC and Sears came to a settlement and the company was less than apologetic for its maneuver.

Not long ago, I found myself in Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) buying a video game. While at the point of sale -- which was a nightmare, not because of anything related to the checkout process, but because a jerk cut in front of me and, after the completion of his transaction, proceeded to deluge the poor associate at the register with a bunch of random, techno nerd-talk that said associate clearly couldn't care any less about (but I digress) -- I noticed something pertaining to a Christmas Club card. Sounded interesting, but I didn't pay much attention to the selling material.

Well, last night I was checking out some articles at Brandweek.com, and lo and behold, I came across this one discussing the holiday card. You know how Christmas Clubs work at banks, correct? Same principle applies here. In a simple nutshell, you get the plastic, you store funds on it, and then you can access those funds later on in the season to acquire presents. It's basically like a gift card that you use for budgeting purposes. Not only is Sears involved in this, but so is Kmart. And there's a promotion going on that's mentioned in the article where you can earn a nominal amount of bonus money on it. I don't know the details; I would suggest checking with Sears/Kmart for further information.

Durable goods are products that should last more than 3 years. That usually includes things like appliances, furnishings, and heavy equipment. The Commerce Department tracks this data and the number of orders for these things popped up an extra 4.9% in July, which was a nice surprise.

Why do I care whether North Americans are buying a new fridge? This is actually a metric you should watch for insight into potential corporate profits. If durable goods (which tend to cost a lot) are being purchased at an increasing rate, it bodes well for the companies that produce and sell those products.

What would happen if a brilliant hedge fund manager took over a retailer and ran it with a rigid focus on financial metrics, putting aside all that soft stuff about branding and marketing?

Take a look at Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), and you have your answer. While macroeconomic trends haven't exactly been the company's friend, the stock has plunged from close to $200 per share in early 2007 to its current price of $66 per share. Just a few months ago it was trading in he mid-$20s.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) strong Q2 results beat expectations due to rising same-store sales.
• Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) Q3 earnings topped low expectations and revenue declined.
• Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) posted better-than-expected Q3 results but shares fell on weaker margins.
• Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) CEO said its new advertising efforts will boost sales over the long run.
• Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) had a better-than-expected Q2 profit but same-store sales fell.
• BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) reported solid Q2 numbers and raised its full-year guidance.

This was one of those days that the overseas stock markets had a boost for the U.S. and the strength just stayed around. Despite a worse jobless claims figure, there was an actual positive report in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data and the Leading Indicators did not hurt the market either.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,348.54 +69.38 (0.75%)
S&P 500 1,007.37 +10.91 (1.09%)
Nasdaq 1,989.22 +19.98 (1.01%)

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Slumping sales did in Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) in the second quarter, as the company posted a surprise loss of 17 cents per share (excluding items). The Street expected the company to report earnings of 38 cents per share. Why the staggering disparity?

One reason is that comparable-store sales dropped 8.6% (12.5% at Sears stores and 3.9% at Kmart). Another reason is what the company called "significant items," which include costs associated with store closings and severance (32 cents per share), domestic pension plan expenses (22 cents per share), mark-to-market losses on Sears Canada hedge transactions (8 cents per share), and a positive impact of a reversal of a $62-million reserve (29 cents per share). The store closings include charges that related to the decision to close 28 underperforming stores.

Yesterday it was lower, today it is higher -- the China effect on U.S. stock futures. Stocks are set to open higher Thursday morning after stocks Shanghai markets rebounded 4.5%, prompting a bounce in markets worldwide. Of course, higher oil and commodity prices helped sentiment as well, but an unexpected loss at retail giant Sears tested investors' confidence early on. Several economic indicators, including employment data, will be in focus this morning.

[Update: an unexpected rise in jobless claims, combined with Sears disappointment caused sentiment to sour somewhat. Stocks are headed for a flat to lower open.]

China shares bounced off a two-month closing low on Thursday after a sharp two-week selloff. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.5%. Investors reacted the People's Bank of China three-month bills auction as a sign of continued easy monetary policy. Encouraged by the happenings in China, world stock markets rose strongly Thursday.