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Paul Foster
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Paul Foster, a knowledgeable researcher has 21-years of professional experience in the capital markets, investments, trading, corporate finance, arbitrage, options and mergers and acquisitions.

Option Update: Apple and Caterpillar volatility up into earnings per share

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) recently down $5.80 to $166.04:


AAPL is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on July 21. AAPL call option volume of 140,446 contracts compared to put volume of 143,734 contracts. AAPL August option implied volatility of 54 was above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.


Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) recently down 73 cents to $71.10:

CAT iss scheduled to report Q2 on July 22. CAT August option implied volatility of 41 was above its 26-week average of 33, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Yahoo volatility at 79 into EPS, asset sale and share buyback speculation

Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) is recently down 31 cents to $22.13. YHOO Q2 EPS are scheduled for July 22. YHOO annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for August 1. Stifel Nicolaus says, "We are increasingly convinced that YHOO executive management is considering the sale of the company's portfolio of Asian Internet assets to unlock value and raise cash for a major repurchase program." YHOO August option implied volatility of 79 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: Bank of America volatility elevated into EPS & outlook

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) closed at $26.50 Thursday.

BAC is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 21. Keefe Bruyette and Woods says: "BAC brings risky CountryWide assets on Balance sheet, lowering estimates."

BAC August call option implied volatility went out at 64, puts at 97, above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 46; 26-week average is 37.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) volatility elevated as SIRI deal vote nears

XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) closed at $8.44 Thursday.

XMSR and Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) announced a merger of equals in February of 2007. XMSR shareholders will receive 4.6 SIRI shares for each XMSR share.

Jonathan Adelstein, an FCC commissioner, said he'd vote to approve a merger between XMSR and SIRI if they cap prices and increase public interest and minority programming. The FCC Chairman Kevin Martin recommended approval of the SIRI-XMSR merger this spring. Adelstein would be the third of five commissioners to support the deal; a majority is needed.

XMSR August option implied volatility of 133 is above its 26-week average of 84 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Microsoft calls and puts active into EPS and outlook

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) recently up 42 cents to $27.68.


MSFT is scheduled to report Q4 earnings per share (EPS) after the close of trading today. Deutsche Bank says "Expect in-line 4Q08; re-iterate Buy on attractive valuation." MSFT call option volume of 221,502 contracts compared to put volume of 177,665 contracts. MSFT July 27 straddle was most recently priced at $1.40. MSFT August 27 straddle priced at $2.50. MSFT August option implied volatility of 38 was above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Google July 530 straddle at $39, August at $58 into EPS

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) closed at $535.60 Wednesday.

GOOG is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 17. Cowen says: "We continue to expect GOOG to gain search share and monetize newer initiatives, such as YouTube and GOOG Apps, over time. We are maintaining our Outperform rating."

GOOG July 530 straddle is priced at $39. GOOG August 530 straddle is priced at $58. GOOG August option implied volatility of 47 is above its 6-month average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Valueclick volatility elevated into lower Q2 revenue guidance

Valueclick (NASDAQ: VCLK), an online marketing service company, announced preliminary Q2 revenue between $163 and $164 million compared to the company's prior guidance range of $166 to $170 million. VCLK is recently trading down $3.02 to $10.75 in pre-open trading.

VCLK overall option implied volatility of 65 was above its 26-week average of 58 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Barr Pharm volume & volatility up into Globes online buyout report

Barr Pharm (NYSE: BRL) is recently trading at $54 in pre-open trading, above its close of $46.82.

The Israeli Globes online reported Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) is in talks to purchase BRL.

BRL option volume was heavy on July 16, with 24,391 contracts trading. BRL August option implied volatility is at 56, November is at 43; above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Time Warner volatility up on corporate execution expectations

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) is recently up 53 cents to $14.45.

The WSJ reported Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and TWX's AOL unit are in advance discussions on a possible tie up.

TWX is expected to report Q2 EPS on August 6. On May 21, 2007 TWX declared a one-time dividend of $10.9 billion to its stockholders, payable just prior to separation of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC); TWX will receive $9.25 billion of Time Warner Cable's dividend.

TWX call option volume of 25,158 contracts compares to put volume of 20,636 contracts. TWX August option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option update: Tesoro volatility elevated at 96; oil trades below $134

Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), a petroleum refiner, is recently up 94 cents to $17.04. Crude oil futures are recently down 3.45% to $133.96 according to Bloomberg.

TSO call option volume of 15,013 contracts compares to put volume of 4,461 contracts. TSO August option implied volatility of 96 is above its 26-week average of 62 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: Chicago Bridge & Iron volatility elevated into lower guidance & charge

Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI), was trading at $31.39 in after market trading last night, below its close of $36.39 Tuesday.

CBI lowered guidance for 2008 and will take a Q2 pretax charge of $317 million on cost over runs associated with two LNG projects in the UK. Goldman Sachs says: "Lowering rating to Neutral on nagging execution risk."

CBI August option implied volatility of 66 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 51; 26-week average is 36

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Alpha Natural volatility elevated into $10 billion buyout

Alpha Natural (NYSE: ANR) will be acquired by Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) in a cash and stock transaction valued at $10 billion.

ANR stockholders will receive 0.95 CLF common shares and $22.23 in cash. Based on CLF closing price on July 15, ANR shares would receive $128.12 per share.

ANR August option implied volatility of 86 is above its 26-week average of 64 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Rambus August volatility elevated at 90

Rambus (NASDAQ: RMBS) closed at $16.46 Monday.

RMBS is the frequent subject of patent infringement & anti-trust claim issues. Hynix Semiconductor, Samsung Electronics and Micron Tech (NYSE: MU) have had patent infringement suits with RMBS.

RMBS July 16 straddle is priced at $1.60. RMBS August option implied volatility of 90 is above its 26-week average of 72 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Financial Select Sector put volume heavy

Financial Select Sector-XLF is recently down 32 cents to $17.40. XLF call option volume of 19,435 contracts compares to put volume of 38,221 contracts. XLF 17.5 straddle is priced at $1.46. XLF August option implied volatility of 76 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 1.01 to 29.49

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Blackrock volatility elevated into EPS & outlook

Blackrock (NYSE: BLK), an investment management firm, closed at $166.63 Monday. BLK is expected to announce Q2 EPS on July 17. Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) owns 52,395,082 shares of BLK as of March 21, 2008. BLK July 165 straddle is priced at $14. BLK August option implied volatility of 63 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 54; 26-week average is 36.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+49.9111,496.57
NASDAQ-29.522,282.78
S&P 500+0.361,260.68

Last updated: July 19, 2008: 03:17 PM

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